The 2nd Major of the year is upon us with the 2024 PGA Championship. The tournament will be played in Louisville, Kentucky at Valhalla Golf Club.
Valhalla last hosted the 2014 PGA Championship. It was the third PGA Championship hosted at Valhalla. Rory Mcllroy was the 36 hole leader and went on to win by one stroke over Phil Mickelson at 16 under par. Rickie Fowler finished in 3rd two strokes off the lead.
Valhalla also hosted the 2008 Ryder Cup and the 2000 PGA Championship when Tiger Woods won in a playoff over Bob May. They set the PGA Championship record at the time of 18 under par for the tournament.
Valhalla Golf Club is a Jack Nicklaus designed 7,609 yard par 71 with Bentgrass greens. There are seven holes with water in play and 60 bunkers.
The course was lengthened in 2021 from 7,458 yards to the current 7,609 yards. Hole one which is a par four has been extended by 38 yards. The par three eighth hole was extended to 190 yards, the 12th hole to 494 yards, the par three 14th hole to 254 yards and the 18th hole par five is now 570 yards. The fairways have also been changed to Zoysia grass.
There are four par threes, three par fives and eleven par fours. The par fours are some of the most difficult holes on the course. The five most difficult holes are all par fours. Holes two and six play at or just under 500 yards and boast a 30% bogey rate.
It will be important to take care of the par fives with only three of them on the course. Managing the par threes goes a long way as well. They play long and rather difficult. Three of the par threes are 200 yards or longer. The only one that’s under 200 yards is the newly lengthened eighth hole which will play 190 yards.
With the distance of this course, Power will certainly help. Mashing it off the tee is an advantage but hitting fairways goes a long way as well. Fairway percentage comes in above tour average at 65 percent. The average drive however comes in well below tour average at 278 yards. There are trees along the fairways but won’t come into play unless drives go way off course. The rough will be penal so shorter hitters will need to live in the fairways if they have any hope of competing.
Greens in regulation are not a given here with GIR percentage coming in at only 62 percent. The aforementioned long rough is partially to blame but so is the length. Nearly a third of approach shots come from 200+ yards with another 20 percent coming from 175-200 yards. Long irons are an absolute necessity at Valhalla.
The greens themselves are on the smaller side especially when considering the length of the course. Greens will be missed and around the green game will certainly be relied upon.
In 2014 we saw a large correlation in the top of the leaderboard also being the golfers that gained the most strokes putting. Obviously a spike round with the putter is possible but poor putters could absolutely putt themselves out of the tournament.
Overall Valhalla Golf Club will test every facet of a golfers game. Bombers may have a slight advantage not just off the tee but also kn the longer approach shots. Shorter hitters will need to find Fairways and have an adequate long iron game or an immaculate around the green game. Success will ultimately come on the greens with golfers putting to take advantage of scoring opportunities or to save par.
The field consists of 156 golfers with the Top 70 and ties making the cut after 36 holes to play the weekend.
The Key Stats
• Off the Tee
• Approach
• Proximity 200+ yards
• Proximity 175-200 yards
• Bogey Avoidance
Previous Winners
• 2023: Brooks Koepka(Oak Hill)
• 2022: Justin Thomas(Southern Hills)
• 2021: Phil Mickelson(Kiawah)
• 2020: Collin Morikawa(Harding Park)
• 2019: Brooks Koepka(Bethpage)
Golfers to Monitor
*All Statistics are prior to the completion of the Wells Fargo Championship
Brooks Koepka
DK- $10,800
Odds- +1600
Koepka is coming in in great form. He just won in Singapore shooting 15 under par. He finished in 9th place the week before in Adelaide. He came into last year with two top five finishes on LIV before winning the PGA Championship.
Koepka actually played at the PGA Championship in Valhalla in 2014 finishing in 15th place. He gained just under nine strokes tee to green. He’s already won three Wanamaker trophies in his career and also has three other top five finishes at the PGA Championship. HE has a ridiculous eight top-2 finishes in Majors.
I’ve made a future bet on Koepka at +2000
Bryson DeChambeau
DK- $9,600
Odds- +3100
DeChambeau played very well at the Masters especially in the first round where he finished with an opening 65. He ended up finishing in 6th place. Bryson already has a Major win at Winged Foot for the 2020 US Open. We could see similar conditions this week where Bryson’s distance could be an advantage off the tee and especially with long approach shots from the rough.
So far in 2024 Bryson’s worst finish was in Singapore where he finished 27th. He also has four top ten finishes in his seven LIV tournaments. He’s 1st in driving distance averaging 318 yards per drive. He’s also 9th in both Scrambling percentage and Greens in Regulation percentage.
His odds to win are currently +3100 and could get even better.
Sahith Theegala
DK- $8,100
Odds- +7000
Theegala has played very well this year. He already has five top-10 finishes in 2024. Two of which are 2nd place finishes. He’s gained strokes putting in all but two tournaments this year.
Theegala has a lot statistically that you’d like to see at Valhalla. Over the last 24 rounds he’s 15th off the tee, 15th in ball striking, 6th in bogey avoidance and 18th in par five scoring. He’s also top 25 on approach, in driving distance and scrambling.
Theegala has been an absolute roller coaster through three rounds at the Wells Fargo. He shot six under in round two and followed it up with a round of 82 on Saturday. His finishing round could determine how popular of a play he is on DraftKings.
I have a future bet on Theegala at +9000
Stephen Jaeger
DK- $7,100
Odds- +15000
Jaeger has been playing great golf over the last six weeks. He rode a hot putter to outduel Scottie Scheffler and win the Houston Open. After that he missed the cut at his first ever appearance at the Masters. He then had back to back top-20 finishes at the Heritage and Byron Nelson. As of writing this Jaeger currently sits tied for 6th place at the Wells Fargo.
Jaeger doesn’t have the long iron game that we want for Valhalla but he more than makes up with his off the tee and short game. Over the last 24 rounds, Jaeger is 11th in strokes gained off the tee, 4th around the green and top 20 in both driving distance and par five scoring.