We head into another signature event and a warmup for the PGA Championship with the 2024 Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Last year Wyndham Clark got his first career win at Quail Hollow. He shot a three under 58 on Sunday to win by four strokes over Xander Schauffele with a final score of 19 under.

In 2022 the tournament was played at TPC Potomac as Quail Hollow prepared for the Presidents Cup. Max Homa won that year at TPC Potomac shooting 8 under par.

Rory Mcllroy has won three times at Quail Hollow setting the course record in 2010 and 2015. He also won most recently in 2021 in a rather weak field. Keith Mitchell and Viktor Hovland tied for 3rd place that year.

Quail Hollow is a 7,530 yard par 71, with Bermuda Greens. Quail Hollow boasts the most difficult finishing 3-hole stretch on tour, the “Green Mile”.

The Green Mile starts with the 500 yard par four 16th hole. It has trouble on both sides of the fairway. The approach shot isn’t much better with water on the left and behind the green and a bunker on the right.

Hole 17 is a 200 yard par 3 with a lake in the front and left of the green. The finishing hole has a creek running up the left side and bunkers up the right side of the fairway.

There are three par fives, four par threes and eleven par fours. Six of the par fours play from 450-500 yards. The par threes are fairly long with the shortest being 184 yards and the longest being a monstrous 249 yards. As with most courses the par fives play as the easiest holes on the course. Especially hole 15 which boasts a 46% birdie rate.

Similar to last week, length with the irons is a necessity at the Wells Fargo Championship. Nearly a third of all approach shots come from over 200 yards. Approaches from 175-200 yards make up another 22% of all approaches.

As a result of longer approach shots, GIR percentage(62%) is lower than tour average. Three putts are also 15% higher than tour average with GIR proximity coming in at 36 feet.

Driving distance is an added bonus as the average drive comes in at 300 yards which is much higher than tour average. Strokes gained off the tee at Quail Hollow is very important, it’s actually 5th most of any course on tour. Hitting fairways isn’t all that important as they are difficult to hit with driving accuracy coming in at only 54 percent.

There are 70 golfers in the field and there will be NO CUT.

The Key Stats

• Strokes Gained Off the Tee
• Strokes Gained Approach
• Approach from 200+ yards
• 3 Putt Avoidance
• Scrambling

Wells Fargo Championship Historical Cut Line

• 2023: even
• 2021: +3
• 2019: +2
• 2018: +4

Previous Winners

• 2023: Wyndham Clark -19
• 2022: Max Homa -8 (Potomac)
• 2021: Rory Mcllroy -10
• 2020: Covid
• 2019: Max Homa -15
• 2018: Jason Day -12
• 2017: Brian Harman -10 (Eagle Point)
• 2017: Justin Thomas -8 (PGA Champ)

Golfers to Target

Rory Mcllroy

Rory obviously has a fantastic track record as well as actual records at Quail Hollow. He has the two wins as stated above. In 10 appearances Rory has eight top ten finishes, four of which are top fives.

Although it may not mean much in the grand scheme of things, Rory is coming off a win at the Zurich team event. Simply lifting a trophy could be the confidence he needs. Over the last 24 rounds he’s 1st in strokes gained off the tee.

I’m considering betting him at +850 but would like that number to get a little better.

Max Homa

Homa has played incredibly well at the Wells Fargo over his career winning at Quail Hollow in 2019 and finishing in 8th place last year. He apparently just likes the Wells Fargo name because he also won in 2022 when the tournament was played at TPC Potomac. He’s gained strokes on approach in each of his last three appearances at Quail Hollow.

It’s been an OK year for Homa so far in 2024 especially at some of the bigger events. He has five top 20 finishes with his best finish being 3rd at the Masters. He also finished 8th at the Arnold Palmer. His irons have been a bit spotty but we know Homa tends to show up at certain courses so maybe the comfort of Quail Hollow is the remedy.

I have bet Homa to win at +2500

Justin Thomas

Thomas has some good performances at Quail Hollow over the years. He missed the cut in 2016 but was otherwise hasn’t finished worse than 26th. He came 14th last year and his best finish was a 7th place back in 2015. Thomas has gained strokes both off the tee and on approach in all five of his appearances at Quail Hollow and has gained an average of 6.24 strokes tee to green over that span.

JT is also coming off a top five performance at the Heritage where he gained strokes in every strokes gained metric.

I like him more as a DraftKings play. His recent struggles should keep his ownership in check.

Akshay Bhatia

Bhatia is from North Carolina an should have some comfort on these types of courses. It hasn’t translated to the course as he missed the cut in his 1st appearance and came 43rd last year. He did gain 5.5 strokes on approach last year but couldn’t get it going on the greens.

Over the last 24 rounds he’s 5th in strokes gained approach, he’s 5th on par fours from 450-500 yards, 7th from 200+ yards and 9th in par five scoring.

If I don’t bet Rory I’m strongly considering a wager on Bhatia at +5000