Key Stats-Last 50 Rounds

Off the Tee

Cam Champ
Doug Ghim
Jhonattan Vegas
MJ Duffue
Garrick Higgo

Birdie or Better

Thomas Detry
Justin Suh
Stephan Jaeger
Davis Thompson
Nicolai Hojgaard

Key Stats-Last 24 Rounds

Off the Tee

MJ Duffue
Jhonattan Vegas
Keith Mitchell
Cam Champ
Doug Ghim

Birdies or Better

Justin Suh
Michael Kim
Stephan Jaeger
Thomas Detry
Garrick Higgo

My Core Four

The main decision here is whether or not to play Finau. I’ve decided I’m playing about 30% of him as of now I’m seeing his ownership somewhere around there but expect it to be higher by lock. I don’t want to go all in or fully fade so I’m comfortable with 30% regardless of the field.

Emiliano Grillo $11,100
DK Ownership 9%

Grillo has played well at Vidanta Vallarta with a 33rd place in 2022 and a 5th place finish last year. He gained over nine strokes on approach last year and added another 4.5 strokes gained putting.

He’s top 10 in strokes gained putting on Paspalum greens and that’s over a rather large sample size. He’s one of only a few in the top 10 who’s logged at least 50 rounds on this surface.

Grillo finished 44th last week at the Genesis mainly due to poor around the green play. He had several good finishes in his prior four tournaments including a 7th at the Sony and a 14th at Pebble Beach. He finished top 25 in all four tournaments.

Cam Champ$8,600
DK Ownership 12%

Cam Champ came 8th and 6th here the last two years. He was not playing well leading up to this event in either year but gained 2.1 and 6.8 strokes putting in his two appearances.

It makes sense that he would have success here considering his prowess with the driver. He’s 1st in strokes gained off the tee and 2nd in driving distance over the last 50 rounds.

He’s also top 10 in ball striking and on approach shots from 200+ yards.

Alejandro Tosti $7,800
DK Ownership 13%

Tosti is 6th in strokes gained off the tee and 4th in driving distance. He’s also top 20 in opportunities gained, birdies or better and on approaches from 200+ yards.

Tosti played in this event last year and finished 10th. He gained over seven strokes tee to green. He made up for a poor Saturday where he shot 71 shooting the low round of the day on Sunday shooting 64.

Jhonattan Vegas $7,600
DK Ownership 18%

Vegas had an uneventful 2023 due to an elbow injury that kept him out for the bulk of the year. He made his return at the Sony in January and went on to miss three straight cuts.

He played most recently at the Waste Management and played well. He finished 22nd gaining five strokes tee to green.

At a course where off the tee matters quite a bit, Vegas has gained strokes off the tee in 19 straight tournaments.

Over the last 24 rounds Vegas is 2nd in strokes gained off the tee, 2nd in ball striking, 4th in driving distance and 4th in opportunities gained.

DK Ownership by Tier

$10k & up- Tony Finau 35%
$9k- Taylor Pendrith 25%
$8k- Davis Thompson 20%
$7k- Jhonattan Vegas 18%
$6k- Joseph Bramlett 9%
$5k- MJ Duffue 6%

Fades

Nicolai Hojgaard $10,700

Hojgaard deserves to be up here in salary considering the field strength but I just don’t love his game as a fit for Vidanta Vallarta especially considering the hefty price tag. Last year he finished 33rd which isn’t terrible but certainly isn’t worth his current price. Over the last 24 rounds he’s 53rd in strokes gained off the tee and 92nd on approaches over 200 yards both of which are extremely important here.

Pivots

Justin Suh $8,300
DK Ownership 7%

Nate Lashley $7,700
DK Ownership 9%

Tyler Duncan $6,900
DK Ownership 5%

Ryan Palmer $6,400
DK Ownership 3%

Ryan Moore $6,000
DK Ownership 3%